Prediction Of Unemployment Rate Using The Fuzzy Time Series Chen Model Method

Abstract

Unemployment is a significant socio-economic problem in Lhokseumawe City that requires serious attention from policymakers. The unemployment rate fluctuates from year to year, making accurate forecasting an important aspect in formulating effective strategies and policies to reduce unemployment. One method that can be used to analyze and forecast time series data with uncertainty is the Fuzzy Time Series (FTS) method, which applies fuzzy logic concepts to handle vague and imprecise data patterns. In this study, the Fuzzy Time Series method is applied to predict the number of unemployed people in Lhokseumawe City. The data used are historical unemployment data over a period of 10 years, from 2013 to 2022. The research process begins with defining the universe of discourse (U), determining the number and length of interval classes, defining fuzzy sets on U, and fuzzifying the unemployment data. Furthermore, Fuzzy Logical Relationships (FLR) are identified and grouped into Fuzzy Logical Relationship Groups (FLRG). The defuzzification process is then carried out to obtain crisp values, followed by forecasting calculations.The analysis was conducted using the RStudio application. The forecasting results show that the predicted number of unemployed people in 2023 is 10,514.125, which is rounded to 10,514 people. The accuracy of the forecasting model is evaluated using Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Average Forecasting Error Rate (AFER), both of which yield values of 6.70%. Since the MAPE and AFER values are less than 10%, the forecasting results can be categorized as very good and reliable for decision-making purposes.