Middle Income Trap di Indonesia: Peran dan Tantangan Sektor Ekonomi Dalam Mendorong Pertumbuhan Berkelanjutan

Ayu Nursari; Ahmad Dhea Pratama

doi:10.47709/jebma.v5i1.5796

Authors

Ayu Nursari Universities Malahayati
Ahmad Dhea Pratama Universitas Islam Negeri Raden Intan

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.47709/jebma.v5i1.5796

Abstract

Perekonomian sektoral, modal manusia, dan investasi memegang peranan krusial dalam upaya Indonesia keluar dari middle income trap. Transformasi ekonomi yang berfokus pada peningkatan nilai tambah sektoral, terutama di sektor produktif seperti industri, pertanian, dan jasa berbasis teknologi, menjadi kunci dalam mendorong pertumbuhan berkelanjutan. Penelitian ini menggunakan pendekatan deskriptif kuantitatif dengan memanfaatkan data sekunder. Objek penelitian mencakup Indonesia dalam rentang waktu 23 tahun, yakni dari tahun 2000 hingga 2023. Data yang dianalisis berupa deret waktu (time series), sehingga metode analisis yang diterapkan meliputi Ordinary Least Square (OLS) dan Error Correction Model (ECM). Hasil penelitian menemukan sepanjang tahun 2000 sampai 2023 di Indonesia, bahwa sektor pertanian, kehutanan, dan perikanan (AGVA), penanaman modal asing (FDI), serta indeks modal manusia (HCI) memiliki pengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap pergerakan GNI Indonesia dalam jangka panjang dan pendek. Sektor industri (INDIVA) serta makanan, minuman, dan tembakau (FBVA) hanya berdampak positif dalam jangka pendek. HCI memiliki pengaruh terbesar terhadap pertumbuhan GNI. Temuan ini menegaskan pentingnya investasi dalam modal manusia dan sektor strategis untuk mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi berkelanjutan dan membantu keluarnya Indonesia dari negara Middle Income Trap.

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