Prediksi Financial Distress Perusahaan Bernotasi Khusus Menggunakan Model Fulmer dan Artificial Neural Network

Authors

  • Fransisco Universitas Bengkulu
  • Nikmah

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.47709/jebma.v6i1.8023

Abstract

Kemajuan teknologi, perkembangan ekonomi global, dan perubahan perilaku akan menjadi tantantangan perusahaan dan berdampak pada stabilitas keuangan, yang akan berakhir pada Financial Distress. Penelitian ini bertujuan membandingkan model Fulmer dan model Artificial Neural Network  (ANN) dalam memprediksi kondisi Financial Distress pada perusahaan yang menerima notasi khusus dari BEI. Pendekatan kuantitatif digunakan dengan membandingkan  tingkat akurasi serta tingkat kesalahan antara kedua model. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan model Fulmer memiliki tingkat akurasi 28%. Sedangkan, model ANN memiliki tingkat akurasi  82%. Sehingga dapat dinyatakan bahwa model ANN lebih unggul dalam memprediksi financial distress perusahaan dengan status notasi khusus BEI dibandingkan model Fulmer.

References

Aljughaiman, A. A., Huy, T., Quang, V., & Du, A. (2023). Analysis The Covid-19 outbreak , corporate financial distress and earnings management. International Review of Financial Analysis, 88(November 2022), 102675. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2023.102675

Aluchna, M. (2023). Agency Theory. In: Idowu, S.O., Schmidpeter, R., Capaldi, N., Zu, L., Del Baldo, M., Abreu, R. (eds) Encyclopedia of Sustainable Management. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-25984-5_814

Assagaf, A., Sayidah, N., Salleh, M. S., & Lestari, S. Y. (2025). Factors Affecting Financial Distress in State-Owned Enterprises: Evidence from Indonesia. International Journal of Innovative Research and Scientific Studies, 8(3), 1886–1897. https://doi.org/10.53894/ijirss.v8i3.6898

Chen, W. Sen, & Du, Y. K. (2009). Using neural networks and data mining techniques for the financial distress prediction model. Expert Systems with Applications, 36(2 PART 2), 4075–4086. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2008.03.020

Christian, N., & Haryono, E. (2021). Analisis pengaruh keefektifan komite audit dan struktur modal terhadap kesulitan keuangan pada perusahaan yang terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia. Conference on Management, Business, Innovation, Education and Social Science, 1(1), 1174–1186.

Gajdosikova, D., & Michulek, J. (2025). Artificial Intelligence Models for Bankruptcy Prediction in Agriculture: Comparing the Performance of Artificial Neural Networks and Decision Trees. Agriculture (Switzerland), 15(10). https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture15101077

Korol, T. (2019). Dynamic Bankruptcy Prediction Models for European Enterprises. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 12(4). https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm12040185

Kristanti, F. T., & Dhaniswara, V. (2023). The Accuracy of Artificial Neural Networks and Logit Models in Predicting the Companies’ Financial Distress. Journal of Technology Management and Innovation, 18(3), 42–50. https://doi.org/10.4067/s0718-27242023000300042

Kristanti, F. T., Safriza, Z., & Salim, D. F. (2023). Are Indonesian construction companies financially distressed? A prediction using artificial neural networks. Investment Management and Financial Innovations, 20(2), 41–52. https://doi.org/10.21511/imfi.20(2).2023.04

Madan, D. B., & Wang, K. (2024). Financial Finance. In International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (Vol. 27, Issues 3–4). https://doi.org/10.1142/S0219024924500110

Munawarah, M., Wijaya, A., Fransisca, C., Felicia, F., & Kavita, K. (2019). Ketepatan Altman Score, Zmijewski Score, Grover Score, dan Fulmer Score dalam menentukan Financial Distress pada Perusahaan Trade and Service. Owner, 3(2), 278. https://doi.org/10.33395/owner.v3i2.170

Osoolian, M., Varahrami, V., & Razavi, H. (2024). Financial Distress Prediction Using Artificial Neural Network, Partial Least Squares Regression, Support Vector Machine Hybrid Model, and Logit Model. Iranian Economic Review, 28(3), 1022–1049. https://doi.org/10.22059/ier.2024.350546.1007572

Peter, P., Herlina, H., & Wiraatmaja, J. (2021). Analisis Kebangkrutan Perusahaan Melalui Perbandingan Model Altman Z-Score, Model Springate’S, Dan Model Fulmer Pada Industri Semen Di Indonesia. Ultima Management?: Jurnal Ilmu Manajemen, 13(2), 369–378. https://doi.org/10.31937/manajemen.v13i2.2313

Radovanovic, J., & Haas, C. (2023). The evaluation of bankruptcy prediction models based on socio-economic costs. Expert Systems With Applications, 227(April), 120275. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2023.120275

Rahayu, W. S., & Khairunnisa, K. (2025). Implementation of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to Predict Financial Distress (A Case Study on Metal and Mineral Industry Companies Listed on IDX 2019–2023 Period). Journal of Economics and Management Scienties, 530–536. https://doi.org/10.37034/jems.v7i4.184

Rohlfs, C. (2022). Generalization in Neural Networks?: A Broad Survey.

Seretidou, D., & Billios, D. (2025). Integrative Analysis of Traditional and Cash Flow Financial Ratios?: Insights from a Systematic Comparative Review.

Sterkenburg, T. F. (2025). Statistical Learning Theory and Occam ’ s Razor?: The Core Argument. Minds and Machines, 35(1), 1–28. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11023-024-09703-y

Sudaryo, Y., Haat, M. H. C., Saputra, J., Yusliza, M. Y., & Muhammad, Z. (2021). Factors that affect financial distress: An evidence from jakarta stock exchange listed companies, Indonesia. Proceedings of the International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Operations Management, 3844–3848. https://doi.org/10.46254/an11.20210688

Sugiarti, W., & -, N. (2023). The Potential Financial Distress in Special Notation Companies on the Indonesia Stock Exchange: Prediction Model Approach. Ilomata International Journal of Tax and Accounting, 4(4), 928–950. https://doi.org/10.52728/ijtc.v4i4.969

Wicaksono, T. D., Buchdadi, A. D., & Mahfirah, T. F. (2023). Determinasi Financial Distress pada Perusahaan Consumer Non-Cyclicals Periode Pandemi Covid-19 dan Konflik Geopolitik Rusia-Ukraina. Journal of Business Application, 2(1), 95–113. https://doi.org/10.55098/jba.v2.i1.p95-113

Zhang, J., & Yu, Y. (2024). Mitigating Financial Distress by Engaging in Digital Transformation?: The Moderating Role of Life Cycles.

Downloads

Published

2026-02-28

How to Cite

Fransisco, & Nikmah. (2026). Prediksi Financial Distress Perusahaan Bernotasi Khusus Menggunakan Model Fulmer dan Artificial Neural Network. Jurnal Ekonomi Bisnis, Manajemen Dan Akuntansi (Jebma), 6(1), 121 – 132. https://doi.org/10.47709/jebma.v6i1.8023