Pengaruh Defisit Anggaran terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi: Peran Interaksi Stabilitas Politik di ASEAN-5

Riski Amalia Yusuf; Grace Natalia Marpaung

doi:10.47709/jebma.v6i2.8907

Authors

Riski Amalia Yusuf Universitas Negeri Semarang
Grace Natalia Marpaung Universitas Negeri Semarang

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.47709/jebma.v6i2.8907

Keywords:

Defisit Anggaran, Keterbukaan Perdagangan, Pertumbuhan Ekonomi, PMTB, Stabilitas Politik

Abstract

Pertumbuhan ekonomi di negara-negara ASEAN-5 menunjukkan respons yang berbeda terhadap kebijakan defisit anggaran, sehingga mengindikasikan adanya faktor institusional yang memengaruhi efektivitas kebijakan fiskal. Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis pengaruh defisit anggaran terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi serta menguji peran interaksi stabilitas politik dalam hubungan tersebut. Penelitian menggunakan data panel lima negara ASEAN-5 selama periode 2011–2024 dengan metode Feasible Generalized Least Squares (FGLS) untuk mengatasi heteroskedastisitas. Model penelitian juga memasukkan inflasi, keterbukaan perdagangan, dan pembentukan modal tetap bruto sebagai variabel kontrol. Untuk memperkuat validitas hasil, penelitian melengkapi analisis menggunakan marginal effect, interaction plot, robustness check melalui Driscoll–Kraay, Panel Corrected Standard Errors (PCSE), estimasi tanpa periode COVID-19, serta analisis sensitivitas menggunakan variabel lag. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa defisit anggaran berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi, sedangkan interaksi antara defisit anggaran dan stabilitas politik berpengaruh negatif sehingga stabilitas politik memperlemah pengaruh positif defisit anggaran terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. Analisis marginal effect memperlihatkan bahwa pengaruh positif defisit anggaran semakin menurun seiring meningkatnya stabilitas politik. Hasil robustness menunjukkan arah koefisien yang relatif konsisten meskipun tingkat signifikansinya berubah pada beberapa spesifikasi model. Temuan ini menunjukkan bahwa efektivitas defisit anggaran di ASEAN-5 tidak hanya ditentukan oleh besarnya defisit anggaran, melainkan dipengaruhi oleh kondisi politik domestik.

References

Acemoglu, D., Johnson, S., & Robinson, J. A. (2005). Institutions as A Fundamental Cause of Long-Run Growth. In P. Aghion & S. N. Durlauf (Eds.), Handbook of economic growth (pp. 385–472). Elsevier B.V. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/S1574-0684(05)01006-3

Acevedo, R., Mora, J. U., & Young, A. (2022). The Government Spending Multiplier in Latin American Countries: Does the Institutional Environment Matter? Journal of Financial Economic Policy, 14(4), 476–490. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1108/JFEP-02-2021-0030

Admaja, A. A., Marissa, F., & Bashir, A. (2025). The Effect of Budget Deficit, Foreign Direct Investment, and Human Development Index on Asean-5 Economic Growth. Ekonomi Dan Bisnis, 12(1), 40–58. https://doi.org/10.35590/jeb.v12i1.10871

Akter, T. (2026). Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth in Developing Countries?: Evidence from 12 Emerging Economies. Journal of Economics and Financial Affairs, 1(1), 18–34. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.66348/jefa.26.v1.n1.a19

Al-saadi, A. S. A., & Khudari, M. (2024). The dynamic relationship between good governance , fiscal policy , and sustainable economic growth in Oman. 8(5), 1–20.

Alesina, A., Özler, S., Roubini, N., & Swagel, P. (1996). Political instability and economic growth. Journal of Economic Growth, 1(Juni 1996), 189–211. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00138862

Alesina, A., & Perotti, R. (1996). Income Distribution, Political Instability, and Investment. European Economic Review, 40(6), 1203–1228. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/0014-2921(95)00030-5

Aragaw, A. (2021). The twin deficits and economic growth in selected african countries. Journal of Business, Economics and Finance (JBEF), 10(2), 88–102. https://doi.org/10.17261/Pressacademia.2021.1407

Arif, U., Komal, M., & Arif, A. (2026). The dynamics of Budget Deficit , Macroeconomic Instability and Economic Growth in Developing Asian Countries?: Evidence from Heterogeneous Panel Methods. 8(2), 233–254. https://doi.org/10.3934/NAR.2026011

ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office. (2024). ASEAN+3 Fiscal Policy Report 2024: Transitioning to Fiscal Normality. https://amro-asia.org/

Asian Develoment Bank. (2023). Reinvigorating Financing Approaches for Sustainable and Resilient Infrastructure in ASEAN+3. https://www.adb.org/news/innovative-financing-key-private-sector-participation-asean3-infrastructure-development-adb

Asian Development Bank. (2024a). Asian Development Outlook (ADO) December 2024: Steady Growth Amid a Shifting Global Policy Landscape (Issue DECEMBER 2024). https://doi.org/https://dx.doi.org/10.22617/FLS240598-3

Asian Development Bank. (2024b). Asian Development Outlook (ADO) September 2024 (EconomicsI, Issue September). https://doi.org/http://dx.doi.org/10.22617/FLS240452-3

Asian Development Bank. (2025a). Asian Development Outlook (ADO) April 2025: Trade Uncertainty Challenges Resilience in Asia and the Pacific (Issue April). https://doi.org/https://dx.doi.org/10.22617/FLS250135-3

Asian Development Bank. (2025b). Asian Economic Integration Report 2025: Harnessing the Benefits of Regional Cooperation and Integration. https://www.adb.org/publications/asian-economic-integration-report-2025

Awolaja, G. O., & Esefo, I. O. (2019). Budget Deficit and Economic Growth in Sub- Saharan Africa?: A PMG Approach. Asian Journal of Economics, Business and Accounting, 13(3), 1–10. https://doi.org/10.9734/AJEBA/2019/v13i330174

Ayana, I. D., Demissie, W. M., & Sore, A. G. (2023). Fiscal policy and economic growth in Sub- Saharan Africa?: Do governance indicators. PLoS ONE, 18(11), e0293188. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0293188

Baltagi, B. H. (2021). Econometric Analysis of Panel Data (6th ed.). Springer Nature. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-53953-5

Barro, R. J. (1974). Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?? Journal of Political Economy, 82(6), 1095–1117. https://doi.org/10.1086/260266

Behera, B. K., & Mallick, H. (2023). Does the Composition of Fiscal Deficit Matter for Economic Growth at the Sub-National levels? An Empirical Analysis for India. Public Finance and Management, 22(1), 26–51. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.37808/pfm.22.1.2

Canh, N. P. (2018). The Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy: Contributions from Institutions and External Debts. Journal of Asian Business and Economic Studies, 25(1), 50–66. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1108/JABES-05-2018-0009

Chang, R., Kaltani, L., & Loayza, N. (2009). Openness is Good for Growth: The Role of Policy Complemen Tarities. Journal of Development Economics, 90(1), 33–49.

Corsetti, G., Meier, A., & Müller, G. J. (2012). What Determines Government Spending Multipliers? Economic Policy, 27(72), 521–565. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0327.2012.00295.x

Duttagupta, R., & Pazarbasioglu, C. (2021). Emerging Markets Must Balance Overcoming The Pandemic, Returning to More Normal Policies, and Rebuilding Their Economies. Finance & Development, 58(2), 4–9. https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fandd/issues/2021/06/the-future-of-emerging-markets-duttagupta-and-pazarbasioglu

Efayena, O. O., & Olele, E. H. (2024). Moderating the Effect of Institutional Quality on the Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth Nexus?: What Evidence Exists in Sub ? Saharan Africa?? Journal of the Knowledge Economy, 15(4), 20436–20458. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13132-024-01978-x

Ehigiamusoe, K. U., & Lean, H. H. (2020). The Role of Deficit and Debt in Financing Growth in West Africa. Journal of Policy Modeling, 42(1), 216–234. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2019.08.001

El-Khodary, M., Tourdi, F. Z., Harrak, S. A., & Hiri, A. El. (2025). Economic Growth Effects of Health and Education Expenditures: Does Corruption Matter in The MENA Region? International Journal of Accounting and Economics Studies, 12(4), 706–715. https://doi.org/10.14419/kf2em421

Franke, G. R. (2010). Multicollinearity. Wiley International Encyclopedia of Marketing. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1002/9781444316568.wiem02066

Gaspar, V., Amaglobeli, D., Garcia-Escribano, M., Prady, D., & Soto, M. (2019). Fiscal Policy and Development?: Human , Social , and Physical Investment for the SDGs (Vol. 2019, Issue 003). https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484388914.006

Greene, W. H. (2018). Econometric Analysis (8th ed.). Pearson. https://www.pearson.com/en-us/subject-catalog/p/Greene-Econometric-Analysis-8th-Edition/P200000005909/9780134811932

Gujarati, D. N., & Porter, D. C. (2013). Dasar-Dasar Ekonometrika: Buku 2 (Edisi 5). Salemba Empat.

Hamdaoui, M., & Ayouni, S. E. (2021). Capital Account Liberalization , Political Stability , and Economic Growth.

H?, T. A. (2018). A Study on Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth from an Institutional Perspective [Lingnan University]. https://commons.ln.edu.hk/otd/60/%0AThis

Htwe, T. M. (2026). State Capacity and Adaptive Keynesianism: Divergent Crisis Responses in Southeast Asia during the COVID-19 Pandemic. Third World Quarterly, 1–24. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1080/01436597.2026.2656314

Ilzetzki, E., Mendoza, E. G., & Végh, C. A. (2013). How Big (Small?) are Fiscal Multipliers? Journal of Monetary Economics, 60(2), 239–254. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2012.10.011

International Monetary Fund. (2022). Outlook Ekonomi Regional: Asia dan Pasifik, Oktober 2022:Ringkasan Eksekutif. https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/REO/APD/2022/October/Bahasa-Indonesian/execsum.ashx

International Monetary Fund. (2023). World Economic Outlook Update: Near-Term Resilience, Persistent Challenges. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2023/07/10/world-economic-outlook-update-july-2023

International Monetary Fund. (2024). Fiscal Monitor. https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fm/issues/2024/04/17/fiscal-monitor-april-2024

International Monetary Fund (IMF). (2026). World Economic Outlook (WEO) Database. IMF. https://data.imf.org/Datasets/WEO

Jannils, ?. (2021). The Concept of Political Instability in Economic Research. International Journal of Management and Economics, 57(3), 268–284. https://doi.org/10.2478/ijme-2021-0016

Kelikume, I. (2016). The Effect of Budget Deficit on Interest Rates in the Countries of Sub-Saharan Africa: A Panel VAR Approach. The Journal of Developing Areas, 50(6), 105–120. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1353/jda.2016.0145

Keynes, J. M. (1936). The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money. Macmillan.

Kharas, H., & Gill, I. (2007). An East Asian renaissance: Ideas for economic growth. World Bank. https://doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8213-6747-6

Kharisma, B., Wardhana, A., & Gunadi, T. P. (2025). A Deeper Look into the Role of Political Institutions on Economic Growth: Evidence from ASEAN Countries. Ecodemica: Jurnal Ekonomi, Manajemen, Dan Bisnis, 9(1). https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.31294/eco.v9i1.21880

Leshoro, T. L. A. (2021). Fiscal Deficit-Econo mic Growth Nexus in South Africa: A Threshold Analysis. International Journal of Economics and Finance Studies, 13(2), 388–409. https://doi.org/10.34109/ijefs.20212018

Mankiw, N. G. (2007). Makroekonomi (Edisi Keen). Erlangga.

Mwigeka, S. (2026). Do budget deficits benefit or harm economic growth?? Evidence from African countries using a threshold analysis.

Nguyen, T. T. D., & Nguyen, N. D. (2025). Governance Perspectives on Budget Deficit and Economic Growth: Empirical Insights from ASEAN Economies. Journal of Governance & Regulation, 14(4), 115–125. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.22495/jgrv14i4art11

Park, C.-Y. (2024). ASEAN Economic Integration: Addressing Challenges and Embracing Opportunities. Asian Economic Policy Revie, 19(2), 173–193. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1111/aepr.12462

Romer, P. M. (1990). Endogenous Technological Change. Journal of Political Economy, 98(5), 71–102. https://doi.org/10.1086/261725

Schreiber, S. (2008). The Hausman Test Statistic Can Be Negative Even Asymptotically. Jahrbücher Für Nationalökonomie Und Statistik, 228(4), 394–405. https://doi.org/10.1515/jbnst-2008-0407

StataCorp. (2024). Stata Base Reference Manual (Release 19). Stata Press. https://www.stata.com/manuals/rhausman.pdf

Sugiyono. (2013). Metode Penelitian Kuantitatif, Kualitatif, dan R&D. Alfabeta,.

Swan, T. W. (1956). Economic Growth and Capital Accumulation. The Economic Record, 32(2), 334---361. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-4932.1956.tb00434.x

Todaro, M. P., & Smith, S. C. (2012). Economic Development (11th editi). Pearson Addison Wesley.

Tran, O. K. T. (2022). Does There Exist an Optimal Budget Balance to Improve Economic Growth?? Empirical Evidence from Asian Countries Does There Exist an Optimal Budget Balance to Improve Economic Growth?? Empirical Evidence from Asian Countries. Cogent Economics & Finance, 10(1), 1–15. https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2022.2114174

Vo, T. K. L., & Ho, N. K. (2025). The Impact of Private Credit and Foreign Direct Investment on Economic Growth?: Evidence from ASEAN-5 Countries. Cogent Economics & Finance, 13(1). https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2025.2578342

Wooldridge, J. M. (2019). Introductory Econometrics: A Modern Approach (6th Editio). Cengage Learning. https://www.cengage.com/c/introductory-econometrics-a-modern-approach-7e/wooldridge/9781337558860

World Bank. (2020). Vietnam Can Learn from COVID-19 Crisis to Address Its Environmental and Climate Challenge. https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2020/12/21/vietnam-can-learn-from-covid-19-crisis

World Bank. (2026a). World Development Indicators. World Bank. https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators

World Bank. (2026b). Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI). The World Bank Group. https://databank.worldbank.org/source/worldwide-governance-indicators